Technical notes

What goes into a call, how it is timed and scored, and how to verify one. The rules that select calls stay private; everything needed to check the results does not.

Last updated 14 November 2026

Data

  • Prices and candles: Binance spot, daily and hourly. Every calculation uses closed candles only; the candle still forming is never read.
  • Positioning: Binance perpetuals (funding, open interest, long/short ratios), daily readings.
  • Market context: CoinGecko (with CoinPaprika and Binance as fallbacks), the Fear & Greed index, news headlines from six crypto outlets.
  • Events: Federal Reserve and ECB calendars from their own sites, US release dates and actual figures from FRED, consensus from the Forex Factory calendar.

When calls are made

After the daily close (00:05 UTC) the coins whose closed bar meets a measured condition become the day's candidates. One call opens in each odd UTC hour, from the strongest candidates, with levels set from the price at that moment. A large fresh news story on a candidate can open it outside the hours, at most twice a day. A coin never has more than two open calls.

Levels

Entry zone: the price ± 0.2 of the coin's 14-day average true range (ATR). Stop: 3.0 ATR away. First target: 1.25 ATR. Further targets at 2.02, 3.27 and 5.29 ATR show how far a move went; the record scores the first target only.

Scoring

  • Filled when an hourly candle touches the entry zone within the first 40% of the horizon; otherwise not filled.
  • Target or stop: whichever an hourly candle reaches first. Both inside one hour: undecided.
  • Horizon: 14 days; an open call then closes at the last price.
  • The result in % is measured from the fill price to the level reached (or the last price).

How the odds are measured

The ~80% comes from walk-forward tests on the closed daily history of 46 coins, judged on the worst period rather than the average. The random-entry baseline uses the same stop and target on random days and sides. Many improvements were measured and rejected because they did not beat this baseline out of sample; nothing changes the numbers automatically from recent results.

Verify a call

  1. On the trade page, copy the call's fingerprint and download the day file (.txt) and its proof (.txt.ots).
  2. Check that the fingerprint is listed in the day file.
  3. Install the OpenTimestamps client (opentimestamps.org) and run ots verify <day>.txt.ots next to the day file. It reports the Bitcoin block that proves the file existed then. A proof made in the last few hours is still pending; the client completes it from the calendars.

The day file lists one line per call - its fingerprint and id - and the Merkle root of all of them, so a single changed call would change the file and break the proof.

More plainly: How it works.