Coming upBTC options expiry: $5.8B notional, max pain 77,000Fri 27 Nov, 08:00 UTCFed rate decisionWed 9 Dec, 19:00 UTC

BTC

longTarget hit
Do you agree?
opened 2026-09-17 09:06 UTC · closed 2026-09-18 12:56 UTC
Entry zone
76,225.025–77,110.995
filled at 76,668.01
Stop
70,023.239
-8.7%
Target (T1)
79,436.664
+3.6%
Result
+3.6%
1.2 days
Odds for this shape
~80%
random entry ~75% · break-even 71%
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How far the price went

  1. T1+3.6%
    79,436.664
    not reached
  2. T2+5.8%
    81,147.142
    not reached
  3. T3+9.5%
    83,915.796
    not reached
  4. T4+15.3%
    88,394.928
    not reached

The record scores T1 only: target before stop. T2 to T4 show how far the move went before the original stop, within the 14-day limit; the best move is the furthest the price went our way in that time. Both describe the market, not a profit we booked.

BTC/USDT · daily · this call's levels

What the call was based on

BTC keeps the long bias because the daily stack is bullish and fresh positioning supports the move. Pattern history is also favorable, and bids are stacked under price, but the latest ETF outflow is a real drag on conviction. The setup is still swing-worthy, not crowded enough to fade outright.

  • ETF outflows $450M, biggest since June
  • Price/OI new money long, OI +0.4% 24h
  • 33% lower after 10d, n=33 pattern cases
  • Weekly trend sideways, RSI 50.2

Bitcoin market regime at the time: bull.

Verification

From v2 launch every call gets a fingerprint at the moment it is published, anchored daily in the Bitcoin blockchain (OpenTimestamps). This call predates that and is verified against the original Telegram channel post.

2026-09-17T09:06:14.267Z_BTC_0