Coming upBTC options expiry: $5.8B notional, max pain 77,000Fri 27 Nov, 08:00 UTCFed rate decisionWed 9 Dec, 19:00 UTC

ETH

longExpired
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opened 2026-09-30 21:08 UTC · closed 2026-10-14 21:08 UTC
Entry zone
2,664.4493–2,702.4307
filled at 2,683.44
Stop
2,398.5797
-10.6%
Target (T1)
2,802.1318
+4.4%
Result
-9.8%
14.0 days
Odds for this shape
~80%
random entry ~75% · break-even 71%
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How far the price went

  1. T1+4.4%
    2,802.1318
    not reached
  2. T2+7.2%
    2,875.4597
    not reached
  3. T3+11.6%
    2,994.1515
    not reached
  4. T4+18.7%
    3,186.1712
    not reached

The record scores T1 only: target before stop. T2 to T4 show how far the move went before the original stop, within the 14-day limit; the best move is the furthest the price went our way in that time. Both describe the market, not a profit we booked.

ETH/USDT · daily · this call's levels

What the call was based on

ETH keeps a bullish daily structure and trades well above its long-term average, so the swing bias stays higher. But 4h momentum is softer, positioning is crowded long, and the ETF flow backdrop favors BTC over ETH for now.

  • Daily EMA stack bullish; price 18.5% above EMA200
  • RSI 61.7, 24h volume 102% of 20d avg
  • 4h RSI 46.7, MACD hist -0.93
  • Retail long 2.74x; top traders 1.55x, crowd still long
  • Ether funds turn red as BTC ETFs add $3.1B

Bitcoin market regime at the time: bull.

Verification

From v2 launch every call gets a fingerprint at the moment it is published, anchored daily in the Bitcoin blockchain (OpenTimestamps). This call predates that and is verified against the original Telegram channel post.

2026-09-30T21:08:13.679Z_ETH_0