Coming upBTC options expiry: $5.8B notional, max pain 77,000Fri 27 Nov, 08:00 UTCFed rate decisionWed 9 Dec, 19:00 UTC

BTC

longExpired
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opened 2026-10-10 05:12 UTC · closed 2026-10-24 05:12 UTC
Entry zone
82,279.22–83,171.58
filled at 82,725.4
Stop
76,032.697
-8.1%
Target (T1)
85,514.026
+3.4%
Result
-2.4%
14.0 days
Odds for this shape
~80%
random entry ~75% · break-even 71%
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How far the price went

  1. T1+3.4%
    85,514.026
    not reached
  2. T2+5.5%
    87,236.842
    not reached
  3. T3+8.8%
    90,025.469
    not reached
  4. T4+14.3%
    94,536.911
    not reached

The record scores T1 only: target before stop. T2 to T4 show how far the move went before the original stop, within the 14-day limit; the best move is the furthest the price went our way in that time. Both describe the market, not a profit we booked.

BTC/USDT · daily · this call's levels

What the call was based on

BTC still has the trend and regime support, with price above the EMA200 and weekly trend pointing up. Positioning is not crowded on leverage, but the move has some short-covering feel and momentum is only mid-range, so upside looks steadier than explosive. The Thailand ETF rule change is a modest added tailwind, enough to nudge conviction up one notch.

  • Bullish EMA stack, weekly uptrend
  • RSI 50.4, MACD hist -561
  • OI -5.76% in 7d, rally on short covering
  • 41% lower after 10d, 61 cases
  • Thailand BTC ETF rules take effect Oct 16

Bitcoin market regime at the time: bull.

Verification

From v2 launch every call gets a fingerprint at the moment it is published, anchored daily in the Bitcoin blockchain (OpenTimestamps). This call predates that and is verified against the original Telegram channel post.

2026-10-10T05:12:16.626Z_BTC_0