Coming upBTC options expiry: $5.8B notional, max pain 77,000Fri 27 Nov, 08:00 UTCFed rate decisionWed 9 Dec, 19:00 UTC

BTC

longExpired
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opened 2026-10-13 05:03 UTC · closed 2026-10-27 05:03 UTC
Entry zone
83,058.658–83,899.923
filled at 83,479.29
Stop
77,169.803
-7.6%
Target (T1)
86,108.243
+3.1%
Result
-4.2%
14.0 days
Odds for this shape
~80%
random entry ~75% · break-even 71%
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How far the price went

  1. T1+3.1%
    86,108.243
    not reached
  2. T2+5.1%
    87,732.413
    not reached
  3. T3+8.2%
    90,361.366
    not reached
  4. T4+13.3%
    94,614.489
    not reached

The record scores T1 only: target before stop. T2 to T4 show how far the move went before the original stop, within the 14-day limit; the best move is the furthest the price went our way in that time. Both describe the market, not a profit we booked.

BTC/USDT · daily · this call's levels

What the call was based on

BTC still sits above its EMA200 with a bullish daily stack and a rising weekly trend. The setup is long, but momentum is only middling and derivatives show new money short plus crowded retail longs, so upside may be choppy rather than straight-line. Pattern history leans higher over 10 days, and the latest Strategy buy is a supportive tailwind.

  • Strategy bought 250 BTC; holding 848,250 BTC
  • RSI 47.16, MACD hist -577; momentum still soft
  • 31% lower after 10d in 35 matches
  • Funding 7.4% ann, retail long 1.50; longs crowded

Bitcoin market regime at the time: bull.

Verification

From v2 launch every call gets a fingerprint at the moment it is published, anchored daily in the Bitcoin blockchain (OpenTimestamps). This call predates that and is verified against the original Telegram channel post.

2026-10-13T05:03:10.866Z_BTC_0