Coming upBTC options expiry: $5.8B notional, max pain 77,000Fri 27 Nov, 08:00 UTCFed rate decisionWed 9 Dec, 19:00 UTC

BTC

longTarget hit
Do you agree?
opened 2026-10-15 05:11 UTC · closed 2026-10-21 14:03 UTC
Entry zone
80,853.14–81,738.88
filled at 81,296.01
Stop
74,652.952
-8.2%
Target (T1)
84,063.951
+3.4%
Result
+3.4%
6.4 days
Odds for this shape
~80%
random entry ~75% · break-even 71%
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How far the price went

  1. T1+3.4%
    84,063.951
    not reached
  2. T2+5.5%
    85,773.987
    not reached
  3. T3+8.9%
    88,541.928
    not reached
  4. T4+14.4%
    93,019.905
    not reached

The record scores T1 only: target before stop. T2 to T4 show how far the move went before the original stop, within the 14-day limit; the best move is the furthest the price went our way in that time. Both describe the market, not a profit we booked.

BTC/USDT · daily · this call's levels

What the call was based on

BTC keeps the long-side bias because the trend stack is bullish, weekly trend is up, and shorts are still paying to hold exposure. Near-term momentum is soft and asks are stacked above price, so the move may need fresh demand to push through resistance.

  • Strive bought $235M BTC; spot bid support
  • Funding -4.5% annualized; shorts still pay
  • Asks 3.0x bids; 1% depth ratio 0.35
  • 10d history: 52% lower after similar setup

Bitcoin market regime at the time: bull.

Verification

From v2 launch every call gets a fingerprint at the moment it is published, anchored daily in the Bitcoin blockchain (OpenTimestamps). This call predates that and is verified against the original Telegram channel post.

2026-10-15T05:11:09.929Z_BTC_0