Coming upBTC options expiry: $5.8B notional, max pain 77,000Fri 27 Nov, 08:00 UTCFed rate decisionWed 9 Dec, 19:00 UTC

BTC

shortTarget hit
Do you agree?
opened 2026-10-27 05:04 UTC · closed 2026-10-30 00:01 UTC
Entry zone
79,431.693–80,240.747
filled at 79,836.22
Stop
85,904.129
+7.6%
Target (T1)
77,307.925
-3.2%
Result
+3.2%
2.8 days
Odds for this shape
~80%
random entry ~75% · break-even 71%
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How far the price went

  1. T1-3.2%
    77,307.925
    not reached
  2. T2-5.1%
    75,745.941
    not reached
  3. T3-8.3%
    73,217.646
    not reached
  4. T4-13.4%
    69,127.367
    not reached

The record scores T1 only: target before stop. T2 to T4 show how far the move went before the original stop, within the 14-day limit; the best move is the furthest the price went our way in that time. Both describe the market, not a profit we booked.

BTC/USDT · daily · this call's levels

What the call was based on

BTC still trades above its 200-day average, but daily momentum has weakened and fresh positioning is leaning short. Crowded retail longs and a security flaw add pressure, even as ETF inflows are a real counterweight. That keeps the short bias intact with moderate conviction.

  • RSI 41.7, MACD hist -364.9
  • Retail longs 69.5%, top traders 1.94x
  • New money short, OI +1.95%
  • Price 4.6% above EMA200, trend still supported
  • BTC ETFs +$301M, 2-week outflow streak broke

Bitcoin market regime at the time: side.

Verification

From v2 launch every call gets a fingerprint at the moment it is published, anchored daily in the Bitcoin blockchain (OpenTimestamps). This call predates that and is verified against the original Telegram channel post.

2026-10-27T05:04:21.132Z_BTC_0