Coming upBTC options expiry: $5.8B notional, max pain 77,000Fri 27 Nov, 08:00 UTCFed rate decisionWed 9 Dec, 19:00 UTC

BTC

shortTarget hit
Do you agree?
opened 2026-11-04 05:04 UTC · closed 2026-11-06 14:54 UTC
Entry zone
76,951.843–77,731.797
filled at 77,341.82
Stop
83,191.477
+7.6%
Target (T1)
74,904.463
-3.2%
Result
+3.1%
2.4 days
Odds for this shape
~80%
random entry ~75% · break-even 71%
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How far the price went

  1. T1-3.2%
    74,904.463
    not reached
  2. T2-5.1%
    73,398.661
    not reached
  3. T3-8.2%
    70,961.304
    not reached
  4. T4-13.3%
    67,018.145
    not reached

The record scores T1 only: target before stop. T2 to T4 show how far the move went before the original stop, within the 14-day limit; the best move is the furthest the price went our way in that time. Both describe the market, not a profit we booked.

BTC/USDT · daily · this call's levels

What the call was based on

BTC still leans lower on weak momentum, crowded retail longs, and recent ETF outflows. Short covering has not turned into fresh spot demand, so rallies can fade back into the risk-off tape. The Liquid Network backing restore is a counterweight, but not enough to change the short bias.

  • IBIT sees biggest BTC ETF outflows since June
  • Retail longs 69.8%; top traders still 1.74 long
  • RSI 38.1, MACD hist -424.9; momentum weak
  • Liquid Network restores full bitcoin backing
  • 53% lower after 10d, but thin sample n=15

Bitcoin market regime at the time: side.

Verification

From v2 launch every call gets a fingerprint at the moment it is published, anchored daily in the Bitcoin blockchain (OpenTimestamps). This call predates that and is verified against the original Telegram channel post.

2026-11-04T05:04:18.986Z_BTC_0