Coming upBTC options expiry: $5.8B notional, max pain 77,000Fri 27 Nov, 08:00 UTCFed rate decisionWed 9 Dec, 19:00 UTC

BTC

shortTarget hit
Do you agree?
opened 2026-11-10 05:01 UTC · closed 2026-11-12 13:54 UTC
Entry zone
74,307.586–75,212.434
filled at 74,760.01
Stop
81,546.375
+9.1%
Target (T1)
71,932.358
-3.8%
Result
+3.8%
2.4 days
Odds for this shape
~80%
random entry ~75% · break-even 71%
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How far the price went

  1. T1-3.8%
    71,932.358
    not reached
  2. T2-6.1%
    70,185.431
    not reached
  3. T3-9.9%
    67,357.779
    not reached
  4. T4-16.0%
    62,783.2
    not reached

The record scores T1 only: target before stop. T2 to T4 show how far the move went before the original stop, within the 14-day limit; the best move is the furthest the price went our way in that time. Both describe the market, not a profit we booked.

BTC/USDT · daily · this call's levels

What the call was based on

BTC is still trading below its 200-day average with weak momentum, and derivatives show fresh short positioning rather than a squeeze. Retail is heavily long while top traders are also leaning long, so the market is not cleanly set up for a bullish fade.

  • ETF outflows $1.3B; flows still leaning risk-off
  • Price 2.28% below EMA200; 52w range 42.3%
  • Retail longs 73.5%, top traders 2.265x long
  • RSI 37.76, MACD hist -335.6; momentum weak
  • OI +3.14% with price: new money short, not squeeze

Bitcoin market regime at the time: side.

Verification

From v2 launch every call gets a fingerprint at the moment it is published, anchored daily in the Bitcoin blockchain (OpenTimestamps). This call predates that and is verified against the original Telegram channel post.

2026-11-10T05:01:14.830Z_BTC_0