Market notes

ETH shows $3.8M of bids against $6.5M of asks

• Most one-sided book: ETH, $3.8M of bids against $6.5M of asks within 1% of price.
• Deepest overall: BTC, $19.3M within 1%.
• Across these 8 coins: $27.8M of bids, $29.6M of asks.
• Resting orders can be pulled; this is a snapshot.

ETH is the clearest imbalance near price. BTC has the deepest book at $19.3M within 1%, and across 8 coins asks at $29.6M are slightly heavier than bids at $27.8M.

Bitcoin, September 2026: +6.4%

• • Every complete month since September 2011 - 181 of them, close to close.
• • 101 closed green, 80 red (56%).
• • Strongest November 2013 +450%, weakest September 2011 -39.7%.
• • Septembers on record: 16 - 7 green, 9 red.
• Past months, not a forecast.

PUMP closed at its highest in 356 days

• Over the last 24 hours among today's coins: HBAR +1.8%, SKY -5.8%.
• 3 of 10 finished the day higher.
• BTC trend: up, dominance 58.3%.
• Fear & Greed: 71 (Greed), 73 a day earlier.
• Worth noting: AAVE closed at its highest in 254 days; PUMP closed at its highest in 356 days.
• Our calls today: 6 - LINK, XLM, PUMP, ICP, SKY, ETH.
• Closed today: 5 - 5 target hit.
• Last 30 days: 171 calls closed, 135 reached target, 16 stopped.
• Past results, not a forecast.

Only 3 of 10 finished higher even with BTC trend up and dominance at 58.3%. Fear & Greed stayed elevated at 71 after 73, while AAVE and PUMP stood out with closes at 254-day and 356-day highs.

9 of 10 are up over the last 7 days

• Over 30 days among today's coins: HBAR +45.7%, BTC +6.4%.
• 9 of 10 are up over the last 7 days.
• 1 moved one way over the week and the other way over the month.
• Past moves, not a forecast.

The 7 day picture is broadly green, while the 30 day range is wide, from HBAR +45.7% to BTC +6.4%. 1 moved one way over the week and the other way over the month, so the trend is not fully aligned.

10 of 10 coins closed above their 200-day average

• 10 of 10 coins closed above their 200-day average.
• 7 of 10 are up over the last 7 days.
• 9 of 10 are in a bullish EMA stack.
• BTC trend: up.
• A count of today, not a forecast.

Breadth is strong across this list: 10 of 10 are above the 200-day average, 9 of 10 keep a bullish EMA stack, and 7 of 10 are up over the last 7 days. BTC trend is up.

BNB was higher 10 days later on 66% of similar days

• BNB has been in a setup like today's on 61 days since Sep 2024: bullish EMA stack, RSI 55 +/-7, normal volume.
• 10 days later, price was higher on 66% of those days and lower on 34%.
• Median move +2.2%, range -7.0% to +19.0%.
• Overlapping days, not independent cases. Past data, not a forecast.

This setup has leaned positive in this sample: 66% of similar days were higher 10 days later, with a median move of +2.2%. The range from -7.0% to +19.0% shows outcomes were still wide.

Only 2 of 10 coins finished higher

• Over the last 24 hours among today's coins: HBAR +27.3%, ONDO -11.5%.
• 2 of 10 finished the day higher.
• BTC trend: up, dominance 58.4%.
• Fear & Greed: 73 (Greed), 74 a day earlier.
• Worth noting: LINK closed at its highest in 322 days; HBAR closed at its highest in 257 days.
• Our calls today: 5 - NEAR, AVAX, ONDO, ARB, ETH.
• Closed today: 4 - 4 target hit.
• Last 30 days: 175 calls closed, 133 reached target, 21 stopped.
• Past results, not a forecast.

Breadth was weak with 2 of 10 higher even as BTC trend stayed up and dominance was 58.4%. Greed stayed elevated at 73 after 74, while LINK and HBAR closed at fresh multi-month highs.

NEAR closed +123.8% from its 200-day average

• NEAR closed +123.8% from its 200-day average, the furthest of today's coins.
• Its daily RSI is 71.5.
• 6 of 10 closed more than 20% above that average; 0 closed below it by 10% or more.
• Stretch is not timing.

NEAR stands out as the most stretched coin today, with a daily RSI of 71.5. The broader list also leans extended: 6 of 10 closed more than 20% above the 200-day average, and 0 closed below it by 10% or more.

7 of 10 are more than 50% below their all-time high

• BTC is the closest of today's coins to its all-time high, 33.5% below it.
• AVAX is the furthest, 92.1% below its own peak.
• 7 of 10 are more than 50% below their all-time high.
• Distance from a past peak, not a target.

Today’s set is still far from past peaks overall. BTC stands out as the closest at 33.5% below its all-time high, while AVAX is the furthest at 92.1% below its own peak.

HBAR open interest is up 35.8% in 7 days

• Retail long share (daily reading): 70% a week ago, 58% today.
• Top trader positions (daily reading): long/short 2.28, net long.
• Open interest: +35.8% in 7 days.
• Funding: +11.0%/yr, longs pay shorts.

Retail long share fell from 70% to 58%, but top trader positions still show 2.28 long/short, net long. With open interest +35.8% in 7 days and funding at +11.0%/yr, participation rose while longs still pay shorts.

0 of 10 finished the day higher

• Over the last 24 hours among today's coins: BTC -0.9%, NEAR -11.0%.
• 0 of 10 finished the day higher.
• BTC trend: up, dominance 58.3%.
• Fear & Greed: 74 (Greed), 70 a day earlier.
• Worth noting: NEAR closed at its highest in over a year; WLD closed at its highest in 97 days.
• Our calls today: 6 - UNI, PUMP, SKY, WLD, POL, SOL.
• Closed today: 6 - 6 target hit.
• Last 30 days: 173 calls closed, 129 reached target, 21 stopped.
• Past results, not a forecast.

Breadth was weak with 0 of 10 higher, even as BTC trend stayed up with 58.3% dominance and Fear & Greed rose to 74 from 70. NEAR stood out at -11.0% but still closed at its highest in over a year; all 6 closed calls hit target.

4 of 10 coins read as new money short

• On 4 of 10 of today's coins, price and open interest over the last 24 hours read as new money short.
• Biggest rise in open interest: SKY +6.4%.
• Biggest fall: SOL -1.1%.
• A reading of the last 24 hours, not a forecast.

The read is mixed: 4 of 10 coins show new money short, while the open interest moves are modest overall with SKY at +6.4% and SOL at -1.1%.

PUMP: the whole picture on one chart

• PUMP today: RSI 65.8, Bollinger %B 100%.
• It sits at 72% of its 52-week range.
• Retail is 55% long, the largest accounts 71% long (daily readings).
• Five readings of today, not a forecast.

WLD turnover hit 37.4% in 24 hours

• WLD traded $719.8M in 24 hours against a market value of $1.9B - 37.4% of itself changed hands.
• Median across today's coins: 12.2%.
• Lowest: BTC at 1.7%.
• Turnover is activity, not direction.

WLD stands out at 37.4% versus a 12.2% median, while BTC sits at 1.7%. That points to activity clustering in WLD as BTC stayed comparatively quiet on this measure.

NEAR closed at its highest in over a year

• Over the last 24 hours among today's coins: NEAR +8.2%, AVAX -0.7%.
• 8 of 10 finished the day higher.
• BTC trend: up, dominance 58.8%.
• Fear & Greed: 70 (Greed), 74 a day earlier.
• Worth noting: NEAR closed at its highest in over a year; TAO closed at its highest in 171 days.
• Our calls today: 6 - ADA, SUI, TAO, DOT, WLFI, ETC.
• Closed today: 5 - 5 target hit.
• Last 30 days: 171 calls closed, 124 reached target, 21 stopped.
• Past results, not a forecast.

The day was broadly positive with 8 of 10 higher, BTC trend up and dominance at 58.8%, while Fear & Greed eased to 70 from 74. NEAR +8.2% and TAO at its highest in 171 days stood out, and 5 closed today with 5 target hit.

NEAR has $511K of bids against $1.3M of asks within 1%

• Most one-sided book: NEAR, $511K of bids against $1.3M of asks within 1% of price.
• Deepest overall: NEAR, $1.8M within 1%.
• Across these 8 coins: $2.9M of bids, $3.9M of asks.
• Resting orders can be pulled; this is a snapshot.

NEAR stands out as both the deepest book at $1.8M within 1% and the most ask-heavy, with $511K of bids against $1.3M of asks. Across these 8 coins, asks also lead at $3.9M versus $2.9M.

SUI leads today's coins with a 7 day gain of +52.4%

• BTC trend: up.
• Fear & Greed: 70 (Greed), 74 a day earlier.
• BTC dominance: 58.8%.
• Best 7 days among today's coins: SUI +52.4%; worst: WLFI -0.2%.
• Most one-sided funding: NEAR +11.0%/yr, longs pay shorts.
• Open interest over 7 days: biggest rise TAO +19.2%, biggest fall DOT -15.4%.

BTC trend is up while Fear & Greed is 70, below 74 a day earlier. BTC dominance at 58.8% and SUI +52.4% next to WLFI -0.2% point to an uneven market, with NEAR funding at +11.0%/yr showing crowded longs.

Where our coins stand inside their own year

• NEAR sits at 99% of its 52-week range, the highest of today's coins; WLFI at 6%, the lowest.
• 1 of 10 are in the top quarter of their own year, 6 in the bottom quarter.
• NEAR moved +55.6% over the last 7 days, WLFI -0.4%.
• Position in a range, not a target.

7 closed today and 7 target hit

• Over the last 24 hours among today's coins: WLD +6.8%, SUI -3.2%.
• 6 of 10 finished the day higher.
• BTC trend: up, dominance 58.3%.
• Fear & Greed: 74 (Greed), 71 a day earlier.
• Worth noting: LINK closed at its highest in 254 days; NEAR closed at its highest in over a year.
• Our calls today: 6 - LINK, LTC, ENA, ONDO, WLD, ICP.
• Closed today: 7 - 7 target hit.
• Last 30 days: 168 calls closed, 121 reached target, 21 stopped.
• Past results, not a forecast.

6 of 10 finished higher as BTC trend stayed up with 58.3% dominance and Fear & Greed at 74, from 71 a day earlier. LINK closed at its highest in 254 days and NEAR at its highest in over a year, matching the firm tone.

0 coins split between the 7 day and 30 day trend

• Over 30 days among today's coins: NEAR +150.5%, WLFI -1.9%.
• 9 of 10 are up over the last 7 days.
• 0 moved one way over the week and the other way over the month.
• Past moves, not a forecast.

The 7 day picture is broadly green, with 9 of 10 up. Over 30 days the range still runs from NEAR +150.5% to WLFI -1.9%, but there is 0 week-month split across today's coins.