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Market notes

One fact at a time from the data of our coins: positioning, records, funding, what the news is about. Every number is set by code from exchange data; a note states a fact, not a forecast.

Retail vs big accountsBNB9 Nov 2026, 11:18 UTC

BNB retail is 73% long vs 52% for the largest accounts

  • BNB: retail 73% long, the largest accounts 52% long - a gap of 21 points (daily readings).
  • The largest accounts are longer than retail on 4 of 10 coins.
  • Positioning, not a forecast.

BNB shows a clear split, with retail at 73% long and the largest accounts at 52% long. Across the list, the largest accounts are longer than retail on 4 of 10 coins, so positioning looks mixed rather than one-way.

Our week9 Nov 2026, 07:17 UTC

33 decided calls, all 33 hit target and 0 stopped

  • Our published calls that closed in the last 7 days: 43.
  • Target hit 33, stopped 0, expired 10, not filled 0.
  • 33 of the 33 decided calls were SHORTs, opened on 11 different days; BTC -5.1% over the last 7 days.
  • Same-side calls rise and fall with the market together, so 33 results are far fewer independent bets.
  • Why our posts show two numbers: our stop sits further away than the first target, so even a random side reached the target first in ~75% of similar past setups. Ours: ~80% of those that resolved. The edge is the gap, not the headline number.

33 decided calls all hit target with 0 stopped, but they were all SHORTs opened on 11 different days while BTC was -5.1% over the last 7 days. With same-side calls moving together, 33 results are fewer independent bets.

Day recap8 Nov 2026, 23:25 UTC

0 of 10 finished the day higher

  • Over the last 24 hours among today's coins: ARB -0.5%, WLD -4.9%.
  • 0 of 10 finished the day higher.
  • BTC trend: sideways, dominance 60.2%.
  • Fear & Greed: 28 (Fear), 25 a day earlier.
  • Worth noting: XRP closed at its lowest in 80 days; DOT closed at its lowest in 65 days.
  • Our calls today: 6 - BTC, XRP, ETH, PUMP, DOT, WLD.
  • Closed today: 2 - 2 target hit.
  • Last 30 days: 165 calls closed, 63 reached target, 17 stopped.
  • Past results, not a forecast.

The day was broadly weak: ARB -0.5% and WLD -4.9%, BTC stayed sideways with dominance at 60.2%, and Fear & Greed was 28 after 25 a day earlier. XRP closed at its lowest in 80 days and DOT at its lowest in 65 days.

Momentum8 Nov 2026, 19:18 UTC

Only 3 of 10 are up over the last 7 days

  • Over 30 days among today's coins: ZEC +3.7%, WLD -34.5%.
  • 3 of 10 are up over the last 7 days.
  • 1 moved one way over the week and the other way over the month.
  • Past moves, not a forecast.

Only 3 of 10 are up over the last 7 days, while over 30 days ZEC is +3.7% and WLD is -34.5%. With 1 moving one way over the week and the other way over the month, the picture is mixed across horizons.

Market pulse8 Nov 2026, 11:21 UTC

Fear & Greed is 28 while BTC stays sideways

  • BTC trend: sideways.
  • Fear & Greed: 28 (Fear), 25 a day earlier.
  • BTC dominance: 60.0%.
  • Best 7 days among today's coins: JST +5.0%; worst: WLD -17.9%.
  • Most one-sided funding: JST -25.7%/yr, shorts pay longs.
  • Open interest over 7 days: biggest rise XRP +24.7%, biggest fall ICP -4.8%.

The read is cautious: Fear & Greed is 28, up from 25, while BTC trend is sideways and BTC dominance is 60.0%. Across today's coins, the week is mixed, from JST +5.0% to WLD -17.9%, with one-sided funding in JST and open interest split between XRP +24.7% and ICP -4.8%.

OI vs priceXRP8 Nov 2026, 07:19 UTC

XRP open interest rose +24.7% as price fell -7.2% in 7 days

  • XRP: open interest +24.7% and price -7.2% over 7 days.
  • Across the list: new money long 3, short covering 0, new money short 3, long liquidation 4.
  • A week of positioning, not a forecast.

XRP sits in the new money short bucket this week. Across the list, new money long 3 and new money short 3 are balanced, while long liquidation 4 and short covering 0 point to a mixed tape with little squeeze-driven strength.

Day recap7 Nov 2026, 23:21 UTC

0 of 10 finished the day higher

  • Over the last 24 hours among today's coins: AAVE -0.1%, BCH -5.9%.
  • 0 of 10 finished the day higher.
  • BTC trend: sideways, dominance 59.3%.
  • Fear & Greed: 25 (Extreme Fear), 28 a day earlier.
  • Our calls today: 6 - BTC, ETH, SOL, DOGE, BCH, TAO.
  • Closed today: 2 - 2 target hit.
  • Last 30 days: 179 calls closed, 66 reached target, 27 stopped.
  • Past results, not a forecast.

Across today's coins it was a weak day: 0 of 10 finished higher, with BTC sideways and Fear & Greed at 25, from 28 a day earlier. Our record shows 2 closed today, 2 target hit.

Weekly trend7 Nov 2026, 19:17 UTC

7 of 10 coins are sideways on the weekly trend

  • Weekly trend: 1 of 10 up, 7 sideways, 2 down.
  • Up: ZEC.
  • Down: DOGE, DOT.
  • The weekly chart as of now, not a forecast.

The weekly picture is mostly flat: 7 of 10 are sideways, with only 1 of 10 up and 2 down. ZEC is the only uptrend, while DOGE and DOT are down.

Coin of the dayBTC7 Nov 2026, 11:16 UTC

BTC led coverage with 15 headlines and closed -7.5% from its 14-day high

  • BTC is the most written-about coin of the last 24 hours: 6 outlets, 15 headlines.
  • Last closed day: $75,844, -0.3% on the day and -2.0% over 7 days.
  • 14-day range: $74,888 to $81,971; the last close is -7.5% from that high.
  • Closed daily candles, Binance spot; the forming day is not drawn. A fact, not a forecast - no odds attached.

Attention was high across 6 outlets, but price was softer: the last closed day was -0.3%, it is -2.0% over 7 days, and the close remains -7.5% from the 14-day high.

Days like todayDOGE7 Nov 2026, 07:21 UTC

DOGE was lower 10 days later on 65% of similar days

  • DOGE has been in a setup like today's on 63 days since Sep 2024: bearish EMA stack, RSI 36 +/-7, normal volume.
  • 10 days later, price was higher on 35% of those days and lower on 65%.
  • Median move -2.0%, range -27.7% to +24.2%.
  • Overlapping days, not independent cases. Past data, not a forecast.

Since Sep 2024, this setup more often led to lower prices 10 days later: 65% lower and 35% higher. The median move was -2.0%, with outcomes ranging from -27.7% to +24.2%.

Day recap6 Nov 2026, 23:26 UTC

9 of 10 coins finished the day higher

  • Over the last 24 hours among today's coins: ZEC +6.1%, XRP -1.9%.
  • 9 of 10 finished the day higher.
  • BTC trend: sideways, dominance 59.2%.
  • Fear & Greed: 28 (Fear), 50 a day earlier.
  • Worth noting: XRP closed at its lowest in 78 days; SOL closed at its lowest in 77 days.
  • Our calls today: 6 - BTC, WLFI, SOL, AAVE, INJ, LINK.
  • Closed today: 11 - 7 target hit, 4 expired.
  • Last 30 days: 182 calls closed, 64 reached target, 27 stopped.
  • Past results, not a forecast.

Breadth was strong with 9 of 10 higher even as BTC stayed sideways at 59.2% dominance. Sentiment fell to 28 from 50, while XRP and SOL still closed at their lowest in 78 days and 77 days.

Liquidations6 Nov 2026, 19:18 UTC

2 of 10 coins show open-interest events in the last 24 hours

  • 2 of 10 coins show an open-interest event in the last 24 hours; the rest are quiet.
  • Squeeze: ZEC, INJ.
  • A reading of the last 24 hours, not a forecast.

Activity was limited in the last 24 hours: 2 of 10 coins saw a squeeze, while the rest were quiet. That points to selective short covering rather than a broad move across the list.

Distance to averagesSOL6 Nov 2026, 11:19 UTC

Only 3 of 10 trade above their 20-day average

  • SOL is -9.0% from its 20-day average, -12.2% from the 50-day and -8.2% from the 200-day.
  • 3 of 10 trade above their 20-day average.
  • Distances as of now, not targets.

Breadth is weak: only 3 of 10 are above the 20-day average, and SOL is below its 20-day, 50-day and 200-day averages at -9.0%, -12.2% and -8.2%.

MACDXRP6 Nov 2026, 07:23 UTC

MACD crossed below its signal line today on XRP, DOGE

  • MACD crossed below its signal line today on XRP, DOGE.
  • The histogram is above zero on 3 of 10 coins.
  • Momentum as of the last close, not a forecast.

Momentum looks soft across the list: the histogram is above zero on 3 of 10 coins, and XRP and DOGE just crossed below their signal line.

Day recap5 Nov 2026, 23:24 UTC

0 of 10 finished the day higher

  • Over the last 24 hours among today's coins: AAVE -4.3%, XLM -9.3%.
  • 0 of 10 finished the day higher.
  • BTC trend: sideways, dominance 59.2%.
  • Fear & Greed: 50 (Neutral), 34 a day earlier.
  • Worth noting: WLFI closed at its lowest in over a year.
  • Our calls today: 6 - BTC, AAVE, ETH, ZEC, INJ, XLM.
  • Closed today: 4 - 4 target hit.
  • Last 30 days: 177 calls closed, 57 reached target, 27 stopped.
  • Past results, not a forecast.

Breadth was weak: 0 of 10 finished higher, with AAVE -4.3% and XLM -9.3% over the last 24 hours. BTC stayed sideways with 59.2% dominance, Fear & Greed rose to 50 from 34, and 4 of 4 closed calls hit target.

Trend stacks5 Nov 2026, 19:22 UTC

0 of 10 are in a bullish EMA stack

  • 0 of 10 are in a bullish EMA stack (20 above 50 above 200), 7 mixed, 3 bearish.
  • Bearish: WLFI, XLM, DOT.
  • Where the averages sit today, not a forecast.

The EMA picture is weak: 0 of 10 show a bullish stack, while 7 are mixed and 3 are bearish. That points to broad trend alignment still missing across this group.

In the news5 Nov 2026, 11:16 UTC

BTC led coverage in 6 of 6 outlets with 20 headlines

  • Most written-about coin in the last 24 hours: BTC - 6 of 6 outlets, 20 headlines.
  • Then SOL (2 outlets, 2 headlines) and XRP (2 outlets, 2 headlines).
  • 3 coins were named by at least 2 outlets.
  • Headline counts across 6 news feeds; attention is a fact about the press, not a forecast.

BTC dominated press attention across 6 feeds, while SOL and XRP appeared in 2 outlets and 2 headlines each. Only 3 coins were named by at least 2 outlets, so coverage was narrow.

Open interest, week5 Nov 2026, 07:19 UTC

WLFI open interest up +12.3% while XLM fell -18.0%

  • WLFI added +12.3% of open interest in 7 days, XLM -18.0%.
  • Open interest rose on 5 of 10 coins over the week.
  • Positioning, not a forecast.

Positioning was split: open interest rose on 5 of 10 coins over the week. WLFI saw added exposure at +12.3%, while XLM stood out for position closing at -18.0%.

Day recap4 Nov 2026, 23:22 UTC

7 of 10 finished higher while BTC stayed sideways

  • Over the last 24 hours among today's coins: ETH +6.0%, WLFI -6.4%.
  • 7 of 10 finished the day higher.
  • BTC trend: sideways, dominance 59.5%.
  • Fear & Greed: 34 (Fear), 26 a day earlier.
  • Our calls today: 6 - BTC, ETH, XRP, NEAR, AAVE, SKY.
  • Closed today: 3 - 1 target hit, 2 expired.
  • Last 30 days: 176 calls closed, 54 reached target, 27 stopped.
  • Past results, not a forecast.

Breadth was positive with 7 of 10 higher, led by ETH +6.0%, while BTC stayed sideways at 59.5% dominance. Fear & Greed moved to 34 from 26, but it still reads Fear.

Coin of the dayBTC4 Nov 2026, 19:18 UTC

BTC led coverage with 20 headlines across 5 outlets

  • BTC is the most written-about coin of the last 24 hours: 5 outlets, 20 headlines.
  • Last closed day: $77,454, +0.8% on the day and -4.3% over 7 days.
  • 14-day range: $76,326 to $84,898; the last close is -8.8% from that high.
  • Closed daily candles, Binance spot; the forming day is not drawn. A fact, not a forecast - no odds attached.

BTC drew 20 headlines across 5 outlets while the last close was $77,454. Price was +0.8% on the day but -4.3% over 7 days and -8.8% from the 14-day high, so attention is elevated while price sits below recent highs.