Market notes

Only 2 of 10 coins are up over the last 7 days

• 4 of 10 coins closed above their 200-day average.
• 2 of 10 are up over the last 7 days.
• 2 of 10 are in a bullish EMA stack.
• BTC trend: sideways.
• A count of today, not a forecast.

Breadth looks soft: 4 of 10 coins closed above their 200-day average, and only 2 of 10 are in a bullish EMA stack. With BTC trend sideways, the market-wide picture reads selective rather than broad.

WLFI is below its 20-day low at -2% of its range

• JST sits at 76% of its 20-day range; WLFI at -2%, below its 20-day low.
• 1 of 10 sit in the upper half of their range.
• Position in a range, not a target.

Only 1 of 10 sits in the upper half of its range. JST at 76% stands out, while WLFI at -2% shows the list is mostly sitting low in its 20-day range.

SOL closed at its lowest in 74 days

• Over the last 24 hours among today's coins: PUMP +10.8%, WLD -0.2%.
• 9 of 10 finished the day higher.
• BTC trend: sideways, dominance 59.3%.
• Fear & Greed: 26 (Fear), 37 a day earlier.
• Worth noting: SOL closed at its lowest in 74 days.
• Our calls today: 6 - BTC, SOL, NEAR, ETH, WLFI, PUMP.
• Closed today: 5 - 1 target hit, 4 expired.
• Last 30 days: 177 calls closed, 56 reached target, 27 stopped.
• Past results, not a forecast.

9 of 10 finished the day higher, but Fear & Greed at 26 and BTC sideways with 59.3% dominance keep the tone cautious. Breadth was positive, while SOL at its lowest in 74 days shows weakness is still present.

DOT is 98.3% below its own peak

• SKY is the closest of today's coins to its all-time high, 34.4% below it.
• DOT is the furthest, 98.3% below its own peak.
• 8 of 10 are more than 50% below their all-time high.
• Distance from a past peak, not a target.

The spread is wide: SKY is 34.4% below its all-time high, while DOT is 98.3% below its own peak. With 8 of 10 more than 50% below their all-time high, most of today's list is still far from prior highs.

0 of 10 are in the top quarter of their 52-week range

• UNI sits at 57% of its 52-week range, the highest of today's coins; WLFI at 2%, the lowest.
• 0 of 10 are in the top quarter of their own year, 4 in the bottom quarter.
• UNI moved +2.3% over the last 7 days, WLFI -4.1%.
• Position in a range, not a target.

Even the strongest name, UNI at 57%, is only a little past the middle of its 52-week range. With 0 of 10 in the top quarter and 4 in the bottom quarter, the group still looks broadly low in its own year.

SOL has the lowest daily RSI at 25.8 while UNI leads at 46.9

• UNI has the highest daily RSI of today's coins at 46.9, SOL the lowest at 25.8.
• 0 of 10 are at or above 70, 2 at or below 30.
• A reading of today, not a forecast.

No coin is in the overbought zone: 0 of 10 are at or above 70. With 2 at or below 30 and the highest reading only 46.9, today’s RSI picture is soft rather than stretched higher.

Only 1 of 10 today's coins finished higher

• Over the last 24 hours among today's coins: TRX +1.9%, ENA -6.3%.
• 1 of 10 finished the day higher.
• BTC trend: sideways, dominance 59.2%.
• Fear & Greed: 37 (Fear), 34 a day earlier.
• Our calls today: 6 - BTC, TRX, POL, XRP, ENA, ONDO.
• Closed today: 2 - 2 expired.
• Last 30 days: 173 calls closed, 56 reached target, 27 stopped.
• Past results, not a forecast.

Only 1 of 10 finished the day higher, with TRX +1.9% and ENA -6.3%. BTC was sideways with 59.2% dominance, while Fear & Greed at 37 versus 34 reads as a cautious backdrop.

5 of 10 coins read as new money short over 24 hours

• On 5 of 10 of today's coins, price and open interest over the last 24 hours read as new money short.
• Biggest rise in open interest: AAVE +5.7%.
• Biggest fall: TRX -6.3%.
• A reading of the last 24 hours, not a forecast.

The spread looks mixed, but 5 of 10 coins leaning new money short shows a soft bearish tilt in positioning. AAVE had the biggest rise in open interest at +5.7%, while TRX saw the biggest fall at -6.3%.

Mercado Bitcoin: $40M stolen

• • Centralized exchange, Nov 2. protocol logic: unknown. Chains: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, TRON, Polygon.
• • Reported by 22 news outlets; headline figures $20M to $46.5M. DefiLlama records $40M.
• • Funds returned so far: none.
• Source: DefiLlama, cross-checked against news coverage. Not financial advice.

TRX sits at 3% of its Bollinger band

• TRX today: RSI 39.7, Bollinger %B 3%.
• It sits at 44% of its 52-week range.
• Retail is 52% long, the largest accounts 39% long (daily readings).
• Five readings of today, not a forecast.

RSI 39.7 and Bollinger %B 3% point to a weak spot in its recent range, while 44% of its 52-week range is more middle than extreme. Positioning is split: retail is 52% long and the largest accounts are 39% long.

Only 1 of 10 coins traded above average volume

• TRX traded 170% of its 20-day average volume on the last closed day, the most of today's coins; PUMP the least at 19%.
• 1 of 10 traded above their average.
• Volume as of the last close, not a forecast.

Turnover looked thin across today's list: only 1 of 10 cleared its 20-day average. TRX stood out at 170%, while PUMP was quiet at 19%.

TRX closed at its lowest in 226 days

• Over the last 24 hours among today's coins: TRX +3.5%, ENA -3.5%.
• 5 of 10 finished the day higher.
• BTC trend: sideways, dominance 60.0%.
• Fear & Greed: 34 (Fear), 30 a day earlier.
• Worth noting: SOL closed at its lowest in 69 days; TRX closed at its lowest in 226 days.
• Our calls today: 5 - ETH, ADA, SUI, QNT, TAO.
• Closed today: 2 - 2 expired.
• Last 30 days: 175 calls closed, 59 reached target, 27 stopped.
• Past results, not a forecast.

5 of 10 finished the day higher, while BTC stayed sideways with 60.0% dominance. Fear & Greed rose to 34 from 30, even as SOL hit its lowest in 69 days and TRX its lowest in 226 days.

What is sitting within 1% of price

• Most one-sided book: BTC, $5.6M of bids against $9.0M of asks within 1% of price.
• Deepest overall: BTC, $14.6M within 1%.
• Across these 8 coins: $18.3M of bids, $19.7M of asks.
• Resting orders can be pulled; this is a snapshot.

BTC closed at $77,582, -8.6% from the 14-day high

• BTC is the most written-about coin of the last 24 hours: 4 outlets, 13 headlines.
• Last closed day: $77,582, +0.3% on the day and -4.1% over 7 days.
• 14-day range: $76,326 to $84,898; the last close is -8.6% from that high.
• Closed daily candles, Binance spot; the forming day is not drawn. A fact, not a forecast - no odds attached.

BTC is getting the most attention with 13 headlines across 4 outlets, while price looks mixed: +0.3% on the last closed day but -4.1% over 7 days, with the close near the low end of the $76,326 to $84,898 range.

Open interest fell 16.8% in 7 days while traders stayed net long

• Retail long share (daily reading): 49% a week ago, 56% today.
• Top trader positions (daily reading): long/short 1.68, net long.
• Open interest: -16.8% in 7 days.
• Funding: +10.2%/yr, longs pay shorts.

Retail long share moved from 49% to 56%, and top trader positions still read 1.68, net long. At the same time, open interest is -16.8% in 7 days and funding is +10.2%/yr, so the read is bullish positioning with lighter participation.

October 2026 in crypto hacks: $127M stolen in 8 confirmed incidents

• • Largest: Ledger (Supply Chain), $93M - wallet, frontend and infrastructure (Oct 9).
• • Then CoinDCX $16M, X100 $4.8M, Gamdom $4.2M, NEAR Intents $3.8M, Initia $2.6M, Qubic $1.3M, Papertrade $1.3M.
• • By type: frontend and infrastructure 2, key compromise 2, governance 1, bridge and cross-chain 1, token and share accounting 1, oracle manipulation 1.
• • Funds returned so far: none.
• • DefiLlama lists 35 incidents and $6.5B for the month; the rest are smaller and not independently confirmed here.
• Source: DefiLlama, each named incident cross-checked against 164 news reports. Not financial advice.

Bitcoin, October 2026: -7.3%

• • Every complete month since September 2011 - 182 of them, close to close.
• • 101 closed green, 81 red (55%).
• • Strongest November 2013 +450%, weakest September 2011 -39.7%.
• • Octobers on record: 16 - 10 green, 6 red.
• Past months, not a forecast.

ETH closed at its lowest in 73 days

• Over the last 24 hours among today's coins: AVAX +0.8%, TRX -8.4%.
• 6 of 10 finished the day higher.
• BTC trend: sideways, dominance 59.3%.
• Fear & Greed: 30 (Fear), 30 a day earlier.
• Worth noting: ETH closed at its lowest in 73 days.
• Our calls today: 6 - ETH, XRP, XLM, UNI, AVAX, HBAR.
• Closed today: 7 - 1 target hit, 1 stopped, 5 expired.
• Last 30 days: 175 calls closed, 61 reached target, 27 stopped.
• Past results, not a forecast.

The day looked mixed: 6 of 10 coins finished higher, but BTC stayed sideways with dominance at 59.3% and Fear & Greed held at 30. ETH at its lowest in 73 days stood out as the clearest sign of pressure.

Only 1 of 10 coins is in a weekly uptrend

• Weekly trend: 1 of 10 up, 5 sideways, 4 down.
• Up: BTC.
• Down: XRP, XLM, SUI, HBAR.
• The weekly chart as of now, not a forecast.

Weekly breadth is thin: 1 of 10 is up, while 5 are sideways and 4 are down. BTC stands alone in the uptrend, with more names rolling over than improving.

Longs pay on 7 of 10 coins; only 1 rose over 7 days

• TRX: shorts pay 44.7%/yr and the price moved -3.5% in 7 days.
• Longs pay on 7 of 10 coins; on 1 of those the price rose over the week.
• A week of history, not a forecast.

The week looks broadly out of sync with positioning: longs pay on 7 of 10 coins, yet only 1 of those saw the price rise. TRX stands out too: shorts pay 44.7%/yr while the price moved -3.5% in 7 days.